Brandon Aiyuk had a breakout season for the San Francisco 49ers in 2022, finishing the year with 78 catches for 1,018 yards and eight touchdowns.
After six games in 2023, Aiyuk has 3o receptions for 511 yards and just two touchdowns, but according to ESPN’s advanced analytics, he’s one of the elite receivers in the NFL. Stats don’t always show the full picture.
Heading into Week 7, there is no other NFL wideout that has been open more often than Aiyuk.
ESPN uses a variety of in-depth factors to develop Open Score. Here’s a good breakdown from a 2022 piece of how it works.
“For every route run, Open Score assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted,” ESPN analytics expert Brian Burke explained.
“The assessment takes place a moment before pass release (0.2 seconds prior(, because defenders read the shoulders of the quarterback at release and break on the targeted receivers. Otherwise, actual targeted receivers would appear less likely to complete a catch.”
Burke goes on to say the ESPN model can’t factor in the nuances of a given play, like a quarterback’s progressions or who the primary receiver is, but it’s still a significant tool.
“Unfortunately, our models can’t directly know the signal-callers pass progression (the sequence of reads he makes during each play), but they are aware of route type, depth and time after snap of the pass release. That means our models do have some sense of timing.”
Here’s another thorough breakdown ESPN posted to YouTube explaining wide receiver analytics, particularly when it comes to Open Score. It’s notable Aiyuk finished No. 9 in Open Score last season.
Brandon Aiyuk is No. 2 Overall WR Right Now
While most casual NFL fan is likely aware of Aiyuk’s name, he is rarely mentioned in the same conversation with AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill , Stefon Diggs and the elite wide receivers in the league right now.
But according to ESPN’s analytics, Aiyuk is the No. 2 overall WR in 2023 as of Oct. 27, behind only Brown from the Philadelphia Eagles.
ESPN combines three main metrics; Open Score, YAC and Catch Score to give each receiver an overall score that’s updated on a weekly basis.
“For wide receivers and tight ends, Open Score accounts for roughly half of the overall score, while Catch score accounts for a little over a quarter, and YAC accounts for the remainder,” Burke explained in the 2022 piece. “We think these weights make logical sense, in that a receiver has to get open to have a chance to make the catch. He then has to catch the ball to make additional yards. Without success in the early part of the sequence, he wouldn’t have many opportunities throughout the remainder of the process.”
George Kittle Also Ranks High In 2023
The 49ers star tight end is another example of the stat sheet not telling the full picture.
George Kittle has just 23 receptions for 293 yards and three touchdowns after seven games, but according to ESPN’s analytics, he’s the No. 15 WR/TE in the league nearing the halfway point of the 2023 season.
It seems a bit stunning, but these analytics put Kittle one spot ahead of Hill, who is having an eclectic season for the Dolphins, and one spot behind Chiefs star tight end Travis Kelce.
It’s abundantly clear the stat sheet doesn’t always tell the full story — and when fully healthy — the 49ers have plenty of weapons to thrive on offense.
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